Oil Outlook 2025: Drill, Baby, Drill | The Panther Blog

Drill, baby, drill—but smarter.

On day one, President Trump declared a national “energy emergency,” signing executive orders to fast-track oil and gas development. His administration is making good on its promise to ramp up domestic production—but 2025 still won’t be without its challenges.

Even as “drill, baby, drill” makes a comeback, operators are keeping budgets tight, focusing on efficiency, and navigating shifting regulations. Rig counts remain steady, M&A is cooling, and gas markets are still unpredictable.

This outlook breaks down the top 10 trends driving the industry forward and where E&P and service companies can find their biggest wins.

1. Expect Capital Discipline to Continue Driving Decisions

E&P companies are keeping budgets tight in 2025, focusing on shareholder returns instead of aggressive growth. Dividends and share buybacks take priority, with operators strategically investing capital for maximum profitability. Wood Mackenzie projects U.S. E&Ps will reinvest around 60% of operating cash flow, signaling a shift toward smarter asset management and operational efficiency.

2. Anticipate Rig Activity and Production Trends to Hold Steady

Despite a slight dip in rig counts, U.S. crude production is set to climb in 2025 as operators extend lateral lengths beyond three miles, getting more out of each well. Private E&Ps are also expected to ramp up drilling, capitalizing on tier-two acreage and noncore assets shed by public operators. This push for efficiency is keeping production strong, even with fewer rigs in operation.

Increasing Total Lateral Footage Despite Rig Decline in 2024
Given that operators were able to hit their production targets with 30% fewer rigs from 2022 to 2024, we can expect to see the trend continue, according to Enverus. (Source: Enverus Intelligence Research, Enverus Activity Analytics)

3. Look for Technology to Bolster Oilfield Service Sector

Analysts say service companies are bouncing back as technology reshapes the industry, driving stronger performance with fewer rigs. Enverus highlights batch drilling and rig automation as key innovations boosting output, while AI and automation continue to reduce downtime and lower costs. Digital transformation and advanced completion techniques are also helping streamline operations and maximize returns.

4. Count on the Permian to Remain the Powerhouse

The Permian Basin remains the backbone of U.S. energy production, but natural gas takeaway constraints have led to negative spot pricing and flaring challenges. Deloitte reports that new midstream infrastructure, including the Matterhorn Express pipeline, is set to ease bottlenecks by 2026, reinforcing the Permian’s role as the dominant driver of U.S. oil and gas output.

5. Brace for Continued Pressure on Natural Gas

Natural gas production slowed in 2024, with the Haynesville and Utica seeing double-digit declines as operators responded to weak prices. Meanwhile, Permian gas production jumped by 10%, keeping output strong even as other basins scaled back. Looking ahead, Enverus expects LNG export growth to help stabilize pricing, creating new opportunities in 2025 and beyond.

North American Liquefaction Capacity by the End of 2030
Up to 7 additional Bcf of LNG demand is expected for Gulf Coast and Canadian exports through 2026, according to Enverus. (Source: Enverus Intelligence Research, EIA)

6. See M&A Shift to Slower Pace

After a historic run of M&A, dealmaking is cooling in 2025 as major players shift focus to integrating assets rather than chasing new deals. However, smaller operators may still have opportunities to pick up assets hitting the market from recent blockbuster mergers. At the same time, companies struggling to scale could become acquisition targets for those looking to strengthen their foothold in key basins.

7. Watch for Elevated Emissions Scrutiny and Demands

With increasing scrutiny on emissions, operators are stepping up waste management and reporting efforts. Methane fees are rising under the revised EPA rule, adding financial pressure on emissions management. Meanwhile, the SEC’s climate disclosure rules are driving more voluntary reporting of Scope 1 and 2 emissions, pushing transparency and compliance to the forefront.

8. Expect Price Stability Despite Shifting Global Dynamics

The oil market is set to hold steady in 2025, even as global supply dynamics evolve. The IEA projects stable conditions, with U.S. shale growth offsetting OPEC+ supply cuts. Enverus forecasts Brent crude to average $85 per barrel, supported by low OECD stock inventories and consistent U.S. output, keeping oil prices from major fluctuations.

US Lower 48 Rig Count
With E&Ps focused on capital discipline and profitability, the industry is unlikely to see a rash of
new supply entering the market, according to Spears and Associates. (Source: Drilling Contractor)

9. Look for Demand of Specialized Oilfield Service Support

As operators push for greater efficiency, the need for specialized oilfield services is growing. Fluids management, solids control, and haul-off services are becoming essential for optimizing wellsite performance. With produced water volumes rising, reliable disposal solutions are a top priority, making expert service providers a key asset in maintaining cost-effective operations.

10. 2025 Competitive Edge: The Panther Advantage™

Staying competitive in 2025 isn’t just about drilling more—it’s about drilling smarter.

Panther Fluids delivers comprehensive fluids management, solids control, and haul-off and disposal services that help operators cut costs, streamline operations, and stay ahead of the game.

Here’s how we deliver real results:

• Fluids Management – Our on-site experts optimize the entire fluids system, helping operators reduce drilling fluid costs and avoid issues before they arise.
• Solids Control – By effectively separating drill cuttings from fluids, we minimize dilution, reduce waste, and improve mud performance—lowering total costs.
• Haul-Off & Disposal – Our optimized approach and strategic network of fully compliant disposal sites reduce trucking and disposal costs, keeping budgets in check.

At Panther, we help you streamline your wellsite by sourcing, delivering, and setting up essential equipment—all covered under a single contract. One partner, one contract, fewer headaches

Drill Smarter with Panther

Panther Fluids isn’t just a service provider—we’re an extension of your team, troubleshooting in real-time, keeping costs in check, and making drilling operations more efficient from start to finish.

See how Panther gives you the edge in 2025. Read our Guide to a Total Fluid Management Service today.